Young Voters Favored Abortion Rights and President-Elect Trump, New Data Shows

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This article is part of The 74’s EDlection 2024 coverage, which takes a look at candidates’ education policies and how they might impact the American education system after the 2024 election.

Correction appended Nov. 19

In most states, young people overwhelmingly supported pro-abortion ballot measures, even while voting for GOP President-elect Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, according to a new data analysis of young voters in the 2024 election.

Although young people listed the economy and jobs as the most important issue in the election, abortion came in at number two. This was particularly significant given that more than a dozen states had ballot measures related to protecting or codifying access to abortion rights, the majority of which passed.

In all states for which Tuft University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE), had reliable data, young voters ages 18-29 overwhelmingly voted in favor of these reproductive rights measures, even as they moved right from the 2020 election, voting for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by much slimmer margins or — in Florida and Missouri — pulling the lever for Trump. 

In Florida, over half (52%) of young voters cast their ballot in favor of ending the state’s six-week abortion ban, despite voting for Trump by a 10-point margin.

Youth activist and chairman of the Florida Future Leaders PAC Jayden D’Onofrio saw this play out live on Florida State University’s campus on the last day of early voting when he shuttled students to their polling place via golf cart. 

He said he heard from countless young Republicans who voted for Trump — whose Supreme Court nominees were largely responsible for overturning the constitutional right to an abortion — yet also supported Amendment 4. If the ballot measure had passed, it would have established a statewide constitutional right to abortion before fetal viability.

“The first two, three times, it’s like, ‘Oh, OK, that’s interesting. You’re voting for Republicans, but you’re voting yes on four,’” he told The 74. “And then after like the first three times, it was just like, ‘OK, holy crap. You know, how many of you people are there?’ ” 

He largely blames the state Democratic party for this disconnect, arguing they failed to message, motivate, or educate youth voters “on where we stand on this issue and where Republicans stand on this issue, and as a result, [young Republicans] voted antithetical to their own beliefs.” 

He added that this mismatch was particularly prominent among young people who told him Trump was pro-choice as well.

Harris garnered 43% of the overall vote in Florida, and the ballot measure received 57.2% of the vote. The amendment ultimately didn’t pass because it didn’t reach Florida’s 60% threshold. Most states require a simple majority. 

This overwhelming support of pro-abortion rights ballot measures, despite a movement to the right generally in 2024, matches research and previous polling, which found 53% of all young voters identify as pro-choice.

Ruby Belle Booth, a researcher at CIRCLE, said it’s further evidence of an emerging trend in which young conservatives and Republicans are consistently more liberal than older ones on a few key issues such as climate change and abortion.

“With this more conservative electorate, it doesn’t mean that they’re more conservative on every single issue,” she said.

Rhea Maniar, a Harvard University freshman and former chair of the Florida High School Democrats, said she wasn’t expecting the “magic wand… miracle” of a Harris win in her home state, but she was cautiously optimistic about the ballot measure.

Ultimately, she was left disappointed by her party’s inability to hit the 60% mark and encouraged leaders to reevaluate their approach to the youth vote generally. 

“There has to be a reason why folks are willing to put Trump on the top of their ticket and then still vote for abortion,” she said. “And I think Democrats are really going to need to take a hard, long look at what’s happening.” 

The ‘frat boy vote’

Youth turnout this year (42%) was lower than the historic turnout in 2020 — more similarly mirroring that of 2016 — except in the battleground states, where it was much closer to the 50% mark. 

“What the turnout in the battlegrounds really shows,” said Booth, “is that when young people are engaged in elections and when there’s a lot of investment in engaging young people in elections they learn to feel like they can make a difference. They feel like their voice matters and they have resources that young people in a lot of other states don’t have.”

The young people who did turn out to vote were significantly more conservative. Young voters backed Harris overall by a mere 4 points (51% to 47%) but gravitated toward Trump compared to 2020, when they gave President Biden a much larger margin (+25). 

The youth electorate was more Republican than 2020 by 9 percentage points, whereas Democratic-identifying youth dropped by five points. It’s not yet clear if this indicates an ideological sea change among the youngest generation of voters or a shift in who turned out to vote, said Booth.

“It just goes to show that there’s so many different kinds of young people out there with so many different priorities,” she said, “and I think for a long time people just assumed that all young people were liberal voters and this election proved that that was not the case. And that’s something we’ve been saying for a really long time — but I think not everybody has been listening.”

One thing she believes is clear this early: young voters were driven by issues. Forty percent of young people chose the economy and jobs as their top issue, and those who did so were about 20 points more likely to vote for Trump. Abortion came in second place, followed by immigration in third — a shift from 2022 when immigration was ranked lower. 

This appears to be a driving factor in the movement toward Trump, who demonized immigrants throughout his campaign and is now planning for mass deportation. Young voters who listed immigration as their top issue supported Trump by a 70-point margin. 

Early data suggests the migration overall is largely attributable to young men, who supported President Joe Biden over Trump by six points, but voted for Trump by a 14-point margin this time around. Among young white men, that margin ballooned to 28 points.

Black and Asian youth overwhelmingly voted for Harris over Trump by the largest margin — about 50 points — while young white voters favored Trump overall (54% to 44%).

The largest shift for any racial or ethnic group of youth between the 2020 and 2024 elections were Latinos, who favored Harris by a 20-point margin this year but went for Biden by a 49-point margin. Young Latino men were 14 points more likely to identify as Republican than they were four years ago, though they still were more likely overall to identify as Democrats.

Youth organizer D’Onofrio, who identifies as “just as a regular, straight white dude who’s 19 years old in Florida,” said he’s seen this dynamic play out among his male friends, the majority of whom are Republicans.

He said he’s started to notice that despite supporting some liberal issues — such as abortion rights — many of these young men have been “swayed by the culture” of hyper-masculinity that “makes them feel good,” which Trump and the Republican party have successfully tapped into.

His peers see Trump going on conservative talk shows, like The Joe Rogan Experience, or engaging with Twitch streamers or billionaire businessmen like Elon Musk. Meanwhile Democrats, he said, are not meeting this demographic where they are, nor do they understand how to talk to them. 

Ultimately, he said, Democrats must recruit strong messengers, with relatable information that they get out on the platforms young men actually engage with.

“It’s the frat boy vote,” he said. “You know, embracing it is unfortunately the way to do it. But by embracing it, you can actively change their minds on it and show that we’re regular people [who aren’t] trying to destroy or dilute their vote.”

Correction: Young male voters favored President-elect Donald Trump by a 14-point margin this year. An earlier version of this story had that number at 28, which is the margin by which young white male voters favored Trump.

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